c206 Empirisch Plausibel
In Q4, users placed 1.5 million bets per day on prediction markets, averaging $300 in notional value
Framing-Operationen
Macht sichtbar
Scale and frequency of prediction market betting activity
Macht unsichtbar
Quality of predictions, accuracy rates, or potential harms from betting
Naturalisiert
Prediction markets as legitimate and measurable economic activity
Abhaengigkeiten
Verifikation
Plausibel
PLAUSIBLE. For Q4 2025, Kalshi alone averaged ~800K trades/day in December, Polymarket ~633K/day at peak. Combined 1.5M/day is plausible. The $300 average notional is harder to verify: early-2026 data shows $95-$143 averages per trade, below $300. Q4 2025 may have had higher per-trade values before the explosion in micro-bet contracts. The bet count is credible; the $300 average may be inflated.
Externe Quellen
- AInvest / KalshiData [Link] — Kalshi processed 18.5M transactions in 23 days of December 2025 (~804K/day)
- ChainCatcher / Polymarket Analysis [Link] — Polymarket processed 95M total transactions in 2025; monthly trades peaked at ~19M (~633K/day)
- DeFi Rate [Link] — Week of March 2-8 2026: Kalshi + Polymarket = 46.3M weekly (~6.6M/day)
Metadaten
- Epistemischer Status
- stated_as_fact
- Evidenztyp
- data_cited
- Evidenzqualitaet
- externally_checked
- Themen
- igaming, fintech