Deconstructed Ball Gaming 2026

DIE CLAIMS

Jede Behauptung, nachverfolgbar

Was behauptet Ball — und was davon stimmt?

Ball macht in 169 Slides über 450 Behauptungen — von konkreten Datenpunkten bis zu versteckten Grundannahmen. Wir haben jede typisiert, in den Argumentkontext eingebettet und, wo möglich, gegen unabhängige Quellen geprüft.

SMOKING GUNS

Wo Ball die Daten streckt

U.S. net betting losses crossed $17B in 2025, up 35x from 2019 and growing 35% a year

Each of the 7 states where iGaming is legal is growing 22-117% a year

Gaming participation in South Korea has declined 22 points since the pandemic high

Surveys consistently report that the share of the population that plays games has fallen by 2.5-4 po…

Roblox grew more than 100% net as overall market shrank in 2022

MEISTZITIERT

Die tragenden Knoten

Diese Claims haben die meisten Abhängigkeiten im Netzwerk — andere Behauptungen bauen auf ihnen auf.

Gaming spending includes Arcade + Console + PC + Mobile + VR + Web + Platform Services but excludes…

64 Verbindungen Definitorisch

Video game content market can be categorized by device (Console, PC, Mobile), region (North America,…

64 Verbindungen Definitorisch

The 'Mature Market 8' represents the relevant analytical framework for understanding global gaming m…

38 Verbindungen Definitorisch

Roblox represents one of the five biggest revenue growth areas, distinct from other platform categor…

35 Verbindungen Definitorisch

Gaming TAM includes Game Sales, DLC, Microtransactions, Subscriptions, and Services, and Ads but exc…

35 Verbindungen Definitorisch

FRAGWÜRDIG

Von uns in Frage gestellt

Bei diesen Claims weicht Balls Darstellung signifikant von unabhängigen Daten ab.

Surveys consistently report that the share of the population that plays games has fallen by 2.5-4 po…

Gaming participation in South Korea has declined 22 points since the pandemic high

U.S. net betting losses crossed $17B in 2025, up 35x from 2019 and growing 35% a year

Each of the 7 states where iGaming is legal is growing 22-117% a year

Platform fees are likely 150% of (non-China) profits

Roblox grew more than 100% net as overall market shrank in 2022

Alle Claims durchsuchen

473 von 473 Claims

279 Empirisch93 Interpretativ49 Definitorisch15 Normativ+6 weitere

This is an analysis of the state of video gaming as of 2026

The video game industry will experience spending growth alongside retrenchment and margin struggles in 2025

Growth in the video game industry is scarcer than headlines suggest

Video games are losing an attention war within the 'Major Market 8'

Novel interactive competitors are taking attention, time, and spend from video games

There are five biggest areas of revenue growth in the video game industry for 2026

Global video game content sales had a strong 2025, growing 5.3% year-over-year and hitting a new all-time high of about…

The gaming industry achieved new highs in each of Mobile, PC, and Console platforms

Consumer spending on video game content has grown exponentially from 1990 to 2025, reaching approximately $200B

2025 boasted several new hit franchises and studios

Many older franchises and studios achieved new heights in 2025

2025 followed the pattern of years prior in terms of gaming industry success

Despite three straight years of industry growth, a new record high for revenues, and a smattering of new hits each year,…

Major gamemakers continued to whittle their portfolios, cancelling even more of their pipeline in 2025 and shutting down…

EA cancelled Black Panther and shut down Cliffhanger Games as part of sharpening focus and putting creative energy behin…

Amazon Games was gutted amid 14,000 layoffs with work on first-party games and MMOs scaled back

Ubisoft cancelled 6 games, including Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time remake

A new Titanfall game was actually real but was cancelled

With budgets cut and funding scant, layoffs continued. 2025 was 40% lighter than 2024, but the year still saw some 9,200…

2022, 2023, and 2024 each set new all-time highs for reported layoffs in the video game industry

Hiring has returned in the video game industry with ASGC tracking over 13,000 open postings at the end of 2025

Gaming jobs are highly and increasingly concentrated in lower cost markets

California represented 43% of gaming layoffs from 2022-2025

An increasing share of new content investment goes to external development partners that can offer lower talent costs, s…

Video game content development spend peaked in 2021 and declined significantly through 2025

Outsourced development captured over 100% of year-over-year increases during peak periods

The video gaming industry continued its restructuring and retreat despite revenue growth

Private studio and publisher funding fell another 55%+ by dollars and deal counts

Another 9,000+ layoffs occurred following 35,000 from 2022-2024

Hiring became further concentrated in lower cost foreign markets

An even greater share of new content investment went to outsourcing

Even more games and studios were cut outright or had budgets trimmed

In 2025, content investment as a share of net revenues hit a (non-pandemic) 7-year low

From 2019-2022, annual content spend grew $11B (+39%)

2022-2025 content spend growth was only $2.3B (+6%)

Market growth resumes while pipelines and budgets are trimmed

The operating margins of standalone gamemakers (i.e., those not owned by game platforms) outside China are far below pre…

34 Non-China, Non-Platform Video Game Publishers represent $59B in net revenue in 2025

The erosion in margins is so great that total operating profits have declined since 2019 despite consumer spending surgi…

The video game industry analysis is structured into six distinct chapters covering spending growth, retrenchment, attent…

Global consumer spend is now at all-time highs

These topline headlines cover up what has really been a shrinking pool of revenue for most developers/publishers

China is eating the video gaming industry

Net growth in console is growth in platform subscriptions

Roblox is stealing share and growing its own garden

Brightness in PC is only just enough and might dim

There is decline in home markets

Industry competition is growing but appetites remain unchanged

Price increases are helping drive growth, but not all titles have pricing power

China represents 20% of global player spend but 38% of growth

China's share of global growth increased from 15% in 2019 to 38% currently

If a gamemaker wants to match global growth, they must win in China or grow 1.6x the market elsewhere

84% of Chinese player spend goes to Chinese-made games

Foreign gamemakers net only a quarter of the remaining 16% spent on imports after local publishing and distribution

Chinese gaming market spending will reach approximately $50B by 2025

Chinese gamemakers have grown their annual share of the non-China market from 10.7% to 14% in six years

Chinese gamemakers grabbed 24% of total non-China growth since 2019

Chinese publishers have captured ~50% of global player spending growth since 2019

The Chinese market is only 20% of global player spending and 'only' 38% of growth

Chinese game purchases using VPN are tallied outside China for geographic spending allocation

By 2025, the console category had more than recovered from its post-pandemic sales pullback, hitting an all-time high of…

119% of net spending growth since 2020 has gone to platform services

Total spending on game sales and transactions is down nearly $3.7B per year (or 11%)

Chinese sales are >150% of total spending growth since 2020, causing the actual market for gamemakers to shrink by ~$4.6…

Console market includes software and services, with Chinese game buys using VPN tallied outside China

PC gaming not only did it skip a post-pandemic decline, but annual PC content sales have also grown by a remarkable 30%…

Even after factoring out China-based sales, which constituted 29% of total growth since 2020, PC content sales are still…

Chinese Game Buys Using VPN are Tallied Outside China

PC's growth only just outstripped console's decline. Together and excluding China, the category is +$2.1B (+3.7%) since…

Much of the recent growth in non-Chinese spending was actually Chinese users who use VPNs to access (and pay for) Steam…

Chinese languages overtook English as the dominant language on Steam by 2024

In 2025, Chinese-language PC users disengaged from Steam (to local alternatives, presumably), finishing the year with th…

Steam language data is based on client language setting rather than first or most used language

Roblox is a singular industry expander

Roblox was over 4.5% of non-China spend in 2025

Roblox has captured (or created) 60% of net growth since 2021

Roblox achieved more than 100% net growth share as overall market shrank in 2022

The realized market for non-Chinese gamemakers has grown only $1B (+0.9%) since 2020, despite the total market growing $…

Since 2021, the realized market for non-Chinese gamemakers has shrunk 1.8%

Global consumer spend on video games grew $9.7B in 2025 to a new all-time high

None of the $9.7B growth trickled down to typical publishers

Chinese publishers captured $3.8B of global growth

The countries that are typically prioritized by major gamemakers have declined outright; it's smaller and less familiar…

Consumer spending on video game content peaked in 2021 at $111.7B across major markets and has declined to $105.1B in 20…

Despite revenue stagnations, annual releases have surged since 2019

PC game releases are up 150% since 2019

Console game releases are up 330% since 2019

The top PC/Console franchises (each 9-33 years old) hold a stable 45% of all player hours

Where share has been lost by top franchises, it's mostly to other 5-25-year-old hits

PC gaming has grown from 27,000 to 120,000+ total games available

Console gaming has grown from 7,500 to 15,000 total games available

New PC/Console games get only 4-7% of total playtime

Half of new game playtime goes to just four titles

Steam reports higher percentages for new games, but this includes annual franchise releases like NBA 2K, FC, COD

Mobile spend is five years flat

New releases are at a decade low share of spend and downloads

Old giants strengthen as UAC costs crowd out discovery

Many of the leaders that have grown or sustained revenue have done so by successfully raising price, not from growing pl…

Chinese Publishers captured 50% of global spend growth since 2019

In the 'Major Market 8,' spend is still down 4.5% since 2021

Net of platform subscription services, console spend is down 13% since 2020

Roblox is 60% of spend growth outside China since 2021

The net decline in console since 2020 offsets 68% of PC growth

PC/Console releases are up 1.5-3.3x since 2019 but share is captive; new mobile releases are at record low shares

Only the top franchises tend to have pricing power

Growth is elusive despite record revenues and margins are falling despite cost cuts, making current stock prices more se…

A few names are up 4% or even 200% since the trough

Only three companies managed to beat the S&P 500 performance during 2023-2025

Major non-China video game companies are defined as a specific set including Nintendo, EA, Konami, Take-Two, Roblox, and…

Many important video game industry leaders shed 10%, 20%, 50%, or even 80% of their value

These are major non-China video game companies

Only Konami beat the S&P 500 among major non-China video game companies from 2021-2025

Most major gaming companies grew only 4-24% over five years while many lost 50-95%

Video games are losing the attention war in the 'Major Market 8'

Novel interactive competitors are taking attention, time, and spend from video games

Over the last six years, video gaming has faced a surprising reality across eight "developed" countries representing ~60…

Eight developed countries represent approximately 60% of global consumer spend on video game content

The U.S. is the #1 market by consumer spend globally

Surveys consistently report that the share of the population that plays games has fallen by 2.5-4 points since before th…

Gaming participation peaked during COVID in 2020

Canada is ranked #8 in gaming market importance

Canadian trade association polling is conducted irregularly

Roughly one in six adult players were lost from 2018 to 2022 despite the lockdowns

South Korea's share of the population that plays video games has fallen by 15 points compared to the 2017-2019 average

Gaming participation in South Korea has declined 22 points since the pandemic high

Mobile gaming participation in South Korea peaked around 2021-2022 and has since declined significantly

Italy ranks #11 in video gaming participation

The share of adults who regularly play video games in Italy has shrunk by over 5 points since 2019

Mobile gaming participation in Italy increased by 1 point since 2019

Console gaming participation in Italy declined by 1 point since 2019

PC gaming participation in Italy declined by 6.5 points since 2019

The UK's overall video gaming participation rate grew 21 percentage points in 2020

A third of the 2020 gaming participation gains in the UK has been lost over the four subsequent years

Each gaming platform in the UK is down from peak participation levels

France ranks #7 in video gaming participation rates

Video gaming participation rates in France are stable after COVID-19

France's gaming participation rates have flatlined overall since 2016 at approximately 52.5%

Each individual gaming platform in France has shrunk in participation

Germany is a rare "up" market in terms of participation rates

Germany gained only four players per hundred in the eight years from 2016 to 2024

Japan is an MM8 outlier with participation rates up 11 points since 2019

Japan's modest and shrinking population means only 6MM new players since 2019 despite high participation growth

Mobile gaming has the highest participation rate among platforms in Japan, reaching approximately 58% by 2024

The loss of a percent — or two, or three — of players is not that big of a problem for the video gaming industry

If a player stopped playing altogether, they probably weren't big gamers

How much revenue or 'value' is really lost when non-big gamers stop playing?

All player loss is a compounding problem

Growth can only come from greater monetization of (ever fewer) remaining players

If some players have stopped playing altogether, many are likely playing less, too

Individual games can only grow by stealing other games' players, playtime, or spend

It's even harder for new games to break through

If players don't spend more, all new investments must be borne by existing players, or otherwise reduce publisher profit…

The network effects of all games and gaming platforms are impaired, which in turn impairs the satisfaction and spending…

PC/Console content spend is down 8% since 2020/2021 (or -$2.3B)

Mobile's annual growth flattened out in 2025, but is +12% since 2020 and now outstrips PC/Console

U.S. is ranked #1 in gaming content spend globally

Mobile game installs are at a 12-year low in the U.S.

Hours played in mobile gaming have tumbled in the U.S.

Time spent watching video game streaming is flatlined in the U.S.

After five years, Canadian PC/Console sales are still 1.5% below 2020's levels

Canadian mobile gaming is up only 0.7% compared to 2020 levels

Growth is tough when customers are diminishing

U.K. PC/Console gaming spending has flatlined from 2021-2024

Mobile gaming has held most of its post-pandemic playerbase

UK mobile gaming is growing at 4.2% CAGR since 2020

UK ranks #5 globally in gaming market size

South Korean PC/Console gaming content spend shrank 10% from 2021-2024

South Korean mobile gaming content spend dropped 4% in recent period

USD/KRW foreign exchange rate has been a big headwind for Korean gaming market

Q1-Q3 2025 KRW preliminaries show 5%+ decline in Won terms

France experienced a 7-year low in PC/Console gaming content spend in 2024

Mobile gaming in France has been mostly sideways since 2020 but is finally starting to edge up

Mobile gaming content spend in France grew 13% from 2020 to 2024

Germany is the 5th largest gaming market

PC/Console gaming revenue has declined 8.2% since 2021

Mobile gaming revenue is up only 0.9%

There has been minor participation rate growth in Germany

Italy is the #11 gaming market

PC/Console software surged 22% during the pandemic

Four years later, PC/Console sales were down 20% and 2% under 2019 levels

Mobile gaming is up 90% from 2021 to 2024

Japan's PC/Console gaming content spend has increased 42% in JPY since 2021

Publishers have been unable to raise prices to offset JPY/USD decline, resulting in a 6% fall in USD terms

Japan's mobile gaming spend has been flat since 2021, representing a 27% decline in USD terms

PC/Console software sales shrank by 8% from 2021-2024 (-$4.2B per year)

Mobile gaming is down 3.8% (-$2.3B), though five of eight markets are at all-time highs

The 'Mature Market 8' represents the relevant analytical framework for understanding global gaming market trends

Interactivity is still ascendant... but that's video gaming's challenge. Interactive experiences continue to emerge and…

Video games are positioned at the center of multiple expanding categories including social video, gaming, online sports…

In just the U.S., consumption of TikTok is up 39 million hours a day compared to the second half of 2020 and first half…

TikTok viewing reached peak consumption around 2023-2024 and has slightly declined by 2025

TikTok's growth hasn't come from direct competitors

Americans now use 122 million more hours social media per day than in 2020/21

The 122 million additional hours represents approximately 21 minutes for each of 341 million people

Americans spent approximately $5B on OnlyFans in 2025, up from $215MM in 2019

OnlyFans usage involves accessing exclusive images and video, and engaging in intimate/parasocial direct messaging

US represents the largest regional market for OnlyFans spending, followed by UK & Europe, then Rest of World

At least two thirds of OnlyFans spending is now transactional/PPV, rather than from subscription payments

As in video gaming, microtransactions are beating gate fees

Crypto always siphoned hours and spend from video gaming

Crypto's first boom coincided with video gaming's COVID surge

The second crypto boom hit during video gaming's stagnation

Consumer-centric AI apps, including those for role play, erotica, and art, have soared in the years since video gaming s…

AI apps didn't exist during gaming's highs

The second-largest increase in weekly ChatGPT downloads occurred in the two weeks after its viral 'Ghibli' art trend in…

In Q4, users placed 1.5 million bets per day on prediction markets, averaging $300 in notional value

Prediction market betting involves untold hours of research, tracking, and social engagement

Prediction market activity has grown dramatically from near-zero in 2019 to over 140M quarterly bets by 2025

U.S. net betting losses crossed $17B in 2025, up 35x from 2019 and growing 35% a year

Sports betting is further integrating into live sports as legalization expands

Gross Gaming Revenue equals total wagers less the sum paid out as winnings

Online sports betting faces bans in many top markets including Korea, Australia, Japan, and China

International net losses from online sports betting are now $53B per year, representing a 210% increase or $36B growth s…

U.S. sports betting shows 35% compound annual growth rate over 3 years

Rest of world (as legal) sports betting shows 20% compound annual growth rate

iGaming refers to digital games in which players bet and can cash out money

iGaming is only recently legal in parts of the U.S.

Singleplayer Slots represent 79% of U.S. iGaming net player outlays by 2025

Multiplayer Poker represents 19% of U.S. iGaming net player outlays by 2025

Singleplayer Table Games represent 2% of U.S. iGaming net player outlays by 2025

iGaming is legal in only 7 states in the U.S.

Each of the 7 states where iGaming is legal is growing 22-117% a year

iGaming is already 2x the size of the mobile casino game category

iGaming represents 21% of all U.S. video game spend

Despite (ever fewer) bans in top markets (China, Korea, Japan), players now lose $54B a year in legal markets in iGaming

iGaming losses have grown from $11B in 2019 to $54B in 2025

iGaming represents roughly 45% of video game spend

US iGaming market has 26% 3-year CAGR while Rest of World (As Legal) has 25% 3-year CAGR

iGaming, though the category might seem too distinct to compare to traditional video games, India is a clear case study…

Real-Money Gaming was banned in August 2024

In mechanics, design, and IP, there's little difference between "mobile gaming" slots and "iCasino" slots

If a player's $20 goes in and never returns, the outcome is functionally equivalent regardless of whether it's mobile ga…

Traditional mobile casino genre (no cashout) long outpaced total mobile gaming growth

The casino genre is now shrinking as whale players depart for iCasinos

With iGaming, U.S. growth from 2021 to 2025 increases from -0.4% to +12.0%

Non-China international gaming growth goes from +10% to +30% with iGaming inclusion

iGaming growth occurs despite widespread bans

The last six years saw massive improvements in the appeal, functionality, and cultural role of various novel apps/servic…

Video gaming has not matched this experiential growth.

Online porn isn't new, nor newly popular; but it is new that viewers can easily, safely, and constantly chat with perfor…

Short-form video, iGaming, sports betting, crypto, et al, have never been so easy to consume, so personalized, so social…

As many previously fringe pastimes shifted to the mainstream, they became fundamentally more compelling because they are…

Many previously private pastimes (e.g. online porn, gambling) have become inherently more social – both in private frien…

Sports betting is now integrated into sports broadcasts, with sports broadcasters (e.g. ESPN) licensing their brands to…

OnlyFans creators use all social media as the 'front door' for user acquisition (and most social media platforms are OK…

Video games not only compete with many new interactive substitutes, but video gamers face a barrage of new, interruptive…

Americans decreased their annual expenditure on video game content, software, and services from $52.49B to $52.30B since…

Americans increased their spend on OnlyFans + Online Sports Betting + iGaming from $11.3B to $32.8B in total, a $21.5B i…

Much of this spend is concentrated on the same few Americans

These users massively over-index to video gaming, and especially high-revenue-generating platforms (console and PC) and…

Video gaming's post-pandemic problem isn't that players choose to watch TikTok instead of buy a AAA game, or subscribe t…

American men aged 18-34 are 1.4-2.0x as likely to play video games compared to the general U.S. adult population

American men aged 18-34 are up to 3.6x as likely to engage in short-form video, OnlyFans, AI, prediction markets, crypto…

Men 18-34 are 15% of the U.S. adult population but 21% of mobile gamers and 29% of PC/Console gamers

Men 18-34 represent 18-49% of regular users of novel interactive apps/services

46% of Americans say they play games less than they used to, with 76% of those still playing

59% of Americans aged 18-45 have cut back on gaming, with 92% of those still playing

Women aged 18-34 show higher agreement (62%) with playing less than men (56%) in the same age group

Gaming frequency decline decreases with age, with 55+ age group showing lowest agreement (32%)

New competition for time and spend concentrates on key gamer demographics and helps explain challenges to video gaming g…

Gamers are playing fewer games overall, with median Steam user playing only four games per year

The same older games dominate gaming time across platforms, with games 9-27 years old holding 33-56% of PlayStation and…

Free-to-play games dominate gaming time, averaging 45% on PlayStation/Xbox and 55% on PC

Game purchasing behavior has declined significantly, with 46% of US gamers buying fewer than one game per year

There are five biggest areas of revenue growth in the video game industry in 2026

The five biggest revenue growth areas in video gaming in 2026 are: Non-Core Markets, Advertising, D2C & Alternative Paym…

Roblox represents one of the five biggest revenue growth areas, distinct from other platform categories

The five biggest revenue growth areas in video gaming in 2026 are Non-Core Markets, Advertising, D2C & Alternative Payme…

Roblox represents a distinct revenue growth area separate from other gaming categories

If the 'Mature Market 8' have been flat-to-down since 2021, but the global market is up, then the industry's growth must…

Since 2021, the 'Mature Market 8' have shrunk by $5.1B (or -4.5%), but China is up $3.3B (+7.3%) and 'non-core countries…

Gaming spending includes Arcade + Console + PC + Mobile + VR + Web + Platform Services but excludes Hardware & Accessori…

China is the world's second largest gaming market

China still has significant headroom in player participation rates, especially for PC and console gaming

China's gaming participation rate has grown steadily from about 44% in 2016 to approximately 51% in 2025

Mobile gaming dominates Chinese gaming participation, reaching approximately 50% by 2025 while PC and console remain muc…

China is not only the fastest-growing major market in both dollars and percentage

Over 25% of China's growth since 2022 is in PC/Console, making the market a true outlier

While participation rates tumble in the U.S. and Canada, Mexico continues to grow 0.5-1.0 points each year

Mobile gaming participation is up 11 points since the pandemic

Console and PC gaming participation both increased by 2 points since the pandemic

Mexico's PC/Console gaming market is up a third since 2020

Mexico's mobile gaming market has nearly doubled since 2020

Mexico now ranks 10th globally in gaming market size

Mexico beats the former #10 (Italy) by over 10%

Brazil boasts a leading and durably high participation rate with 73-80% of those age 16+ playing regularly

Mobile gaming is the dominant platform in Brazil, consistently maintaining 40-50% participation

Brazil's gaming participation has shown remarkable stability and growth from 2016-2025

Brazil's PC/Console market has averaged over 6% annual growth over the last three years

Brazil's mobile gaming market has averaged 7% annual growth over the last three years

By some estimates, Brazil is now a top 10 market globally

Unlike many of its European peers, Spanish participation rates have continued to grow across all device platforms, and f…

Spanish PC/Console spend grew nearly 50% from 2020 to 2024

Spanish PC/Console spend increased by $450MM per year from 2020 to 2024

Spanish Mobile gaming spend grew 27% from 2020 to 2024

Spanish Mobile gaming spend increased by $135MM from 2020 to 2024

More players continue to come online across Southeast Asia and the Middle East & North Africa

Overall player participation rates in Southeast Asia and MENA tend to lead the world

There are not just 'more' players in Southeast Asia and the Middle East & North Africa, there's also a lot more revenue…

Roblox's hours have exploded globally during 2024 and 2025

This growth has not been led by the 'home market' (UCAN)

APAC hours are now 78% greater than UCAN hours

ROW hours are now 51% greater than UCAN hours

All global gaming growth helps the overall video gaming industry, but the benefits don't automatically accrue

Specific choices are needed to benefit from global gaming growth

Designing for 'Low End' Devices is a specific strategic choice for capturing global gaming benefits

Operating for 'Low End' ARPU is a specific strategic choice for capturing global gaming benefits

Prioritizing Foreign Cultures Over 'Local' Ones is a specific strategic choice for capturing global gaming benefits

iPhone performance has dramatically increased from 2007 to 2025, with Metal performance showing the most significant gai…

The desire to 'design up' to newer specs is driven by advancing smartphone capabilities that enable richer graphics, ani…

Many of the most popular games globally, even fast-twitch shooters, are designed to play well on iPhones 10-14 generatio…

iPhone 5S, 6, and 6S were dropped in summer of 2025 due to Apple's 'forced upgrade cycle' for Xcode 16

High-end mobile games like Assassin's Creed and Resident Evil are only available on high-end iPhone models

Free Fire offers two app versions that play and cross-play into the same game but with different optimizations

Fire Fire MAX requires significantly more resources (1.7x-2.66x) than regular Fire Fire across all metrics

Fire Fire MAX offers enhanced features including acoustic audio mapping, 3D interactive lobby, and better visual effects

Globally, 65% of Google Play video game revenue worldwide comes from low and mid-tier devices

In markets such as LATAM, 90% of Google Play video game revenue comes from low and mid-tier devices

Operating economics present challenges for companies as they must be set up to profit on and practically invest behind c…

US & Canada generates the highest quarterly bookings per DAU at $50.9 compared to other regions

Globally, average revenue per player by country per year can vary by as much as 200x, with most of the 'mature markets'…

Different markets measure populations at different age thresholds (5+, 10+, 16+, 18+) which causes both sample bias and…

Garena's Free Fire has over 650 million quarterly players, about 9.5% of whom pay ~$12 per quarter (thus the average use…

Garena only reports QAUs, not MAUs or DAUs

Non-Western players prioritize different (and generally less valuable) players by investing in content and experiences t…

Different games create culturally specific events and content for different regional markets, as evidenced by the contra…

Prioritization is the operative word for IP events and integrations in gaming

Events and integrations are not infinite

Creative and commercial resources that support IP events are not infinite

Despite the post-pandemic industry slump, PUBG has been able to grow considerably

PUBG is already one of the world's bigger games

PUBG's growth has been through its PC, Mobile, and APAC-centric development

Genshins and Wukongs are market-specific creations that defy Western conventions and expectations but have generated $40…

Love and Deepspace is a story-based live service romance game in the sci-fi action RPG genre

Users have five primary love interests and can unlock intimate memories and dates, while using their superhuman powers t…

A 2025 update added a period tracker for players

The "ROW" (Rest of World) opportunity represents a positive way to view current hiring trends in the gaming industry

It's frustrating that hiring regions don't match layoffs, but encouraging that they finally match revenues

The five biggest revenue growth areas in video gaming in 2026 are: Non-Core Markets, Advertising, D2C & Alternative Paym…

Roblox represents a distinct revenue growth category separate from other gaming platforms

For years, it has been essentially absurd to tabulate industry revenue without ads. Outside of China, mobile game ads ne…

Since 2021, mobile ads have been 37-145% of annual industry growth

Without ads, the market (excluding China) is up only $6.8B or +4.8%, but with them, it's +$35B or +20%

Consumer spend contracted during the period when ads' share peaked at ~150%

20-30% of gross revenue from mobile game in-app advertising is collected by ad exchanges such as AppLovin, IronSource, G…

Mobile game in-app advertising revenue (excluding China) will reach approximately $67B by 2025

Tens of billions in ad revenue in mobile games is ad spend from other mobile games

Your ad revenue is my UA; your UA is my revenue (net of exchange fees and non-mobile UA)

Mobile gaming UA expenses have exceeded the app store fees on consumer spending since 2020

By 2027, ad exchange fees on ad revenue will likely pass app store fees on consumer spending

Not all mobile gamemakers spend 32% of net revenues on user acquisition

Not all mobile gamemakers generate a third of revenues from ads

Royal Match, the 2nd highest grossing new game since 2020, had $1.1B in net revenue in 2023 and spent $1.1B on UA

Dream Games achieved $0.13B operating profit despite spending $1.07B on user acquisition

Today, ads remain rare among PC/Console games and services (with the exception of on-device/in-store ad units)

Eventually, ads reach all addressable surface areas

Advertising is starting to come to PC and console gaming

EA is prototyping in-game ads

Microsoft is expected to announce an ad-supported tier of Xbox Cloud Gaming

In markets with decline players, flattened spend, free-to-play dominance, publishers will need to improve the monetizati…

PC/Console and Mobile game content spending trends are very similar in mature markets

The five biggest revenue growth areas in video gaming in 2026 are Non-Core Markets, Advertising, D2C & Alternative Payme…

Roblox constitutes its own distinct revenue growth category separate from other gaming platforms

Of the $136B in content sales outside of China and excluding 1st-party platform games and services, store fees consumed…

iOS IAP generates the highest platform fees at $11.8B, followed by Android IAP at $9.0B, Console at $7.8B, and Steam at…

Annual (non-China) platform fees rival many top markets combined as a revenue opportunity

Platform fees are likely 150% of (non-China) profits

Many mobile publishers are already redirecting substantial and growing shares of their gross revenues to alternative (ty…

Direct-to-consumer payment channels have far lower commissions than traditional app store payment channels

Stillfront has achieved the highest share of D2C revenue among tracked publishers, reaching approximately 50% by Q4 2025

D2C stores are partly why topline mobile growth has slowed

Gamemakers discount gross prices to encourage D2C/webshop adoption that offer better net sales economics

Across five mobile publishers with leading D2C adoption (and ~$4.4B in total player spend), gross sales are down 1% sinc…

Net sales growth (4%) is more important than gross sales decline (1%)

To maximize D2C adoption, publishers must do more than offer valuable discounts, fun perks, and simple user journeys. Th…

Payment method preferences vary significantly between different regional markets

In Q4 2021, only about 12.7% of Roblox's revenues were D2C, resulting in platform fees devouring 27% of gross revenues

Today, the former is up to 30% and latter down to 22%

Roblox's improvements in alternative payment share since Q4 2021 have saved it roughly $420MM in payment fees (over $50M…

Behind Roblox's D2C success is not just large D2C discounts, but lucrative D2C-only Robux subscriptions that effectively…

D2C and Gift Card customers get up to 25% more Robux per dollar than in-app buyers

Premium subscribers can get 35% more Robux per dollar out of IAP

Cheapest & highest value monthly Robux subscriptions are only available D2C/online

Many parents use D2C-only Robux subscriptions for allowance

At Epic Games Store on PC, IAP fees are only 12% (and often less), but a growing share of publishers use their own billi…

Third-party content playtime on Epic Games Store has grown consistently from 1.2 billion hours in 2019 to 2.8 billion ho…

The five biggest revenue growth areas in video gaming in 2026 are Non-Core Markets, Advertising, D2C & Alternative Payme…

Roblox represents a distinct revenue growth area separate from other gaming categories

In 2025, outsourcing held a record 35.5% share of total content investment spend, up from 30.6% in 2017 and roughly 31.5…

Outsourcing's recent growth stems from a near-doubling of its share of net new content investment

Outsourced share represents approximately 65% of net new content investment from 2022-2025

Outsourced share was 33% from 2018-2022 versus ~65% from 2022-2025

Behind outsourcing growth is mostly not QA, localization, or testing, but an increasing reliance on outside partners for…

Upstream work (Art & Animation, Game Engineering, Coding, and Design) represents 74% of outsourcing work by 2025

Lack of local resources was the 3rd most cited reason to use outsourcing in 2022, but 6th in 2025

Cost savings went from 5th to 2nd most cited reason for outsourcing between 2022 and 2025

Flexible staffing models stayed at 1st place but grew in importance for outsourcing

Gamemakers report substantial increases in the share of their engineering work that's outsourced, with most categories u…

In creative disciplines, many outsource users report 60-95% of total work on animations, audio, environmental design, we…

3D animations show the highest outsourcing rates among creative disciplines, reaching approximately 95% by 2025

Many of the most creatively and commercially successful titles of the last few years have been substantial users of exte…

The five biggest revenue growth areas in video gaming in 2026 are: Non-Core Markets, Advertising, D2C & Alternative Paym…

Roblox represents a distinct revenue growth area separate from other gaming platforms or categories

Roblox is now a singular driver of the total video gaming market

In 2025, Roblox was over 4.5% of non-China spend and 40% of net growth

Roblox grew more than 100% net as overall market shrank in 2022

At the end of 2024, Roblox had more DAU than PlayStation, Switch, or Xbox

A year later, DAU were up another 69% (with 3x as many DAU added as in the first year of COVID)

Roblox growth is driven by users under 13 and users over 13, with under 13 representing the largest segment

Roblox growth is global with significant expansion in APAC and ROW regions

Roblox's engagement surged even more than DAU. In just Q3 2025, Roblox amassed more hours of use than it achieved in the…

Roblox's average quarterly engagement is now as large as that of Steam, PlayStation, and Fortnite combined

Engagement measurement excludes off-platform activities like watching PlayStation or Fortnite streams on YouTube, Twitch…

Roblox is starting to challenge Netflix for total hours of use

In 2025, Roblox hit 65% of Netflix's hours (82% in Q3)

While Netflix grows ~1% a year, Roblox manages 25-70% growth

Roblox's top titles now match the top non-Roblox games and even publishers in monthly engagement despite having a tiny f…

Off-platform engagement such as watching PlayStation or Fortnite streams on YouTube, Twitch, TikTok is excluded from the…

Roblox developers are now taking home $1.5B per year, with Q4 2025 hitting $477MM, up more than 70% year-over-year

Roblox's growth is supported by unprecedented $1.6B in annual R&D expenditures

Roblox R&D investment continues to grow while shrinking rapidly as a percentage of revenue

Roblox exhibits classic creative disruption

Roblox has built outstanding scale, network effects, revenues, and now profits

Roblox monetizes a fraction of the market average

The video game industry faces spending growth but also retrenchment and margin struggles in 2025

Growth in the video game industry is scarcer than headlines suggest

Video games are losing the attention war in the 'Major Market 8'

Novel interactive competitors are taking attention, time, and spend from video games

There are five biggest areas of revenue growth in the video game industry in 2026

There is no "Video Gaming Industry"

To find growth, we have to acknowledge the fragmented nature of gaming

There is no single 'Video Gaming Industry' - there are many distinct industries

To find growth opportunities, acknowledging industry fragmentation is necessary

There are many ways to cut the video game industry, each facing its own dynamics and sub-dynamics, and not all offer sim…

Mobile gaming dominates the global TAM through both player spending (42.4%) and ads (26.6%), totaling approximately 69%…

Live service games (including ads) represent 83.7% of gaming content revenue, while packaged sales only account for 12%

Some segments are growing at a fraction of the size of the overall market, while others are growing at multiples of it

Video game content market can be categorized by device (Console, PC, Mobile), region (North America, APAC, China, Europe…

Each sub-cut represents a very different share of growth

Live Service content (including ads) dominates the video game content market at 83.7% with 85% growth share

Different companies in the 'video gaming industry' exist in very different universes and experience fundamentally differ…

Gaming TAM includes Game Sales, DLC, Microtransactions, Subscriptions, and Services, and Ads but excludes Hardware & Acc…

Mobile gaming represents the largest share of gaming content revenue through player spending (42.4%) and advertising (26…

Live Service games (including ads) represent 83.7% of gaming content revenue

Multiple firms provided custom analysis support for this presentation

Placement order is randomized but weighted by total citations

This document represents the state of video gaming as of 2026

Growth and where to find it is a central concern for understanding video gaming in 2026

This presentation addresses the state of video gaming in 2026 with focus on growth opportunities

This presentation represents the state of video gaming in 2026

Growth and where to find it are key themes for understanding gaming in 2026

Kapitalistisches Wachstum ist der naturgegebene und wünschenswerte Zustand von Märkten

Märkte sind rationale, berechenbare Systeme, die sich durch Datenanalyse verstehen und vorhersagen lassen

Menschliche Aufmerksamkeit ist eine knappe, quantifizierbare Groesse, die extrahiert und monetarisiert werden kann

Konkurrenz zwischen Unternehmen ist der natürliche Zustand von Märkten und führt zu optimalen Ergebnissen

Massenentlassungen sind ein legitimes und effizientes Instrument zur Gewinnoptimierung

Nationalität von Unternehmen ist eine bedeutsame Kategorie für Marktanalyse

Konsumausgaben reflektieren die wahren Präferenzen und den Nutzen der Verbraucher

Technologische Disruption ist ein neutraler, naturgegebener Prozess ohne soziale oder politische Dimensionen

Quantifizierbare Metriken sind objektiver und wertvoller als qualitative Einschätzungen

Outsourcing und geografische Arbitrage sind neutrale Effizienzmaßnahmen ohne soziale Kosten

Märkte existieren unabhängig von regulativen und institutionellen Rahmenbedingungen

Individuelle Unternehmensentscheidungen aggregieren sich zu optimalen Marktergebnissen

Die Pandemiehochs von 2020 sind ein angemessener Benchmark für 'normale' Marktperformance

Sprach-Settings sind AUSREICHEND fuer die gezogenen Schluesse ueber geografische und kulturelle Zugehoerigkeit

Wachstum kann von einzelnen Unternehmen 'erzeugt' oder 'eingefangen' werden, als wäre es eine physische Ressource

Die Abstraktiοn von Gaming zu reinen Zahlenwerten erfasst das Wesentliche der Phänomene

Platform-Ownership verleiht natürliche und legitime Marktvorteile

Subscription-Modelle repräsentieren eine natürliche Evolution der Märkte, nicht eine strategische Machtverschiebung

Content-Investment als Prozentsatz des Umsatzes ist ein objektiver Indikator für Industriegesundheit

Politik als externe Stoerung, nicht konstitutive Bedingung von Gaming-Maerkten

Die Analyse beschreibt den Markt neutral, statt ihn mitzugestalten.

Menschliche Aufmerksamkeit ist fixe Groesse — Medienkonsum ist Zero-Sum

Was bedeuten die Claim-Typen?

Definitorisch

Ball legt fest, was ein Wort bedeutet. Klingt harmlos — ist der mächtigste Schritt.

Empirisch

Konkrete Zahlen und Datenpunkte aus Balls Quellen.

Interpretativ

Balls Deutung der Daten — hier steckt die Perspektive.

Prognostisch

Prognosen über die Zukunft der Industrie.

Normativ

Wertaussagen — was laut Ball sein sollte.

Vergleichend

Vergleiche zwischen Märkten, Regionen oder Zeiträumen.

Kausal

Ursache-Wirkungs-Behauptungen — am schwersten zu belegen.