In Q4, users placed 1.5 million bets per day on prediction markets, averaging $300 in notional value
Framing-Operationen
Scale and frequency of prediction market betting activity
Quality of predictions, accuracy rates, or potential harms from betting
Prediction markets as legitimate and measurable economic activity
Abhaengigkeiten
Verifikation
PLAUSIBLE. For Q4 2025, Kalshi alone averaged ~800K trades/day in December, Polymarket ~633K/day at peak. Combined 1.5M/day is plausible. The $300 average notional is harder to verify: early-2026 data shows $95-$143 averages per trade, below $300. Q4 2025 may have had higher per-trade values before the explosion in micro-bet contracts. The bet count is credible; the $300 average may be inflated.
Externe Quellen
- AInvest / KalshiData [Link] — Kalshi processed 18.5M transactions in 23 days of December 2025 (~804K/day)
- ChainCatcher / Polymarket Analysis [Link] — Polymarket processed 95M total transactions in 2025; monthly trades peaked at ~19M (~633K/day)
- DeFi Rate [Link] — Week of March 2-8 2026: Kalshi + Polymarket = 46.3M weekly (~6.6M/day)
Metadaten
- Epistemischer Status
- stated_as_fact
- Evidenztyp
- data_cited
- Evidenzqualitaet
- externally_checked
- Themen
- igaming, fintech
Verwandte Claims aus Cluster Igaming And Betting Competition
Mobile game installs are at a 12-year low in the U.S.
Hours played in mobile gaming have tumbled in the U.S.
Time spent watching video game streaming is flatlined in the U.S.
Prediction market betting involves untold hours of research, tracking, and social engagement
Prediction market activity has grown dramatically from near-zero in 2019 to over 140M quarterly bets by 2025