c208 Empirisch Plausibel

Prediction market activity has grown dramatically from near-zero in 2019 to over 140M quarterly bets by 2025

Slides: s073 Argument: UA005B Cluster: Igaming And Betting Competition Hub-Score: 0

Framing-Operationen

Macht sichtbar

Rapid growth trajectory of prediction markets

Macht unsichtbar

Market concentration, regulatory concerns, or sustainability questions

Naturalisiert

Growth as inherently positive and indicative of market maturity

Abhaengigkeiten

Haengt ab von

c005 Novel interactive competitors are taking attention, time, and spend from video games

Verifikation

Plausibel

PLAUSIBLE. "Near-zero in 2019" is accurate (Augur was essentially dead, PredictIt tiny). For "140M quarterly bets" in Q4 2025: Kalshi had 27.67M in December, implying ~63M for Q4. Polymarket's Q4 was comparable given 95M annual with late-year surge. Combined Q4 2025 could plausibly reach 120-140M+. Exact verification impossible without official Q4 disclosures from both platforms.

Externe Quellen

KuCoin / KalshiData [Link] — Kalshi: 97M trades in 2025; December alone 27.67M trades
ChainCatcher / Polymarket [Link] — Polymarket: 95M on-chain transactions in 2025
Augur / Wikipedia [Link] — Augur launched 2018; by 2019 had minimal activity

Metadaten

Epistemischer Status: implied
Evidenztyp: data_cited
Evidenzqualitaet: externally_checked
Themen: igaming, growth, consumer_demand