Market Saturation And Competition

Industry competition is growing but appetites remain unchanged

Despite revenue stagnations, annual releases have surged since 2019

PC game releases are up 150% since 2019

Console game releases are up 330% since 2019

The top PC/Console franchises (each 9-33 years old) hold a stable 45% of all player hours

Where share has been lost by top franchises, it's mostly to other 5-25-year-old hits

PC gaming has grown from 27,000 to 120,000+ total games available

Console gaming has grown from 7,500 to 15,000 total games available

New PC/Console games get only 4-7% of total playtime

Half of new game playtime goes to just four titles

Steam reports higher percentages for new games, but this includes annual franchise releases like NBA 2K, FC, COD

New releases are at a decade low share of spend and downloads

Old giants strengthen as UAC costs crowd out discovery

PC/Console releases are up 1.5-3.3x since 2019 but share is captive; new mobile releases are at record low shares

The loss of a percent — or two, or three — of players is not that big of a problem for the video gaming industry

If a player stopped playing altogether, they probably weren't big gamers

How much revenue or 'value' is really lost when non-big gamers stop playing?

All player loss is a compounding problem

Growth can only come from greater monetization of (ever fewer) remaining players

If some players have stopped playing altogether, many are likely playing less, too

Individual games can only grow by stealing other games' players, playtime, or spend

It's even harder for new games to break through

If players don't spend more, all new investments must be borne by existing players, or otherwise reduce publisher profits

The network effects of all games and gaming platforms are impaired, which in turn impairs the satisfaction and spending rates of all remaining players

Growth is tough when customers are diminishing

Gross Gaming Revenue equals total wagers less the sum paid out as winnings