Competitive Threats And Substitutes

TikTok viewing reached peak consumption around 2023-2024 and has slightly declined by 2025

Americans now use 122 million more hours social media per day than in 2020/21

The 122 million additional hours represents approximately 21 minutes for each of 341 million people

Crypto always siphoned hours and spend from video gaming

Crypto's first boom coincided with video gaming's COVID surge

The second crypto boom hit during video gaming's stagnation

Consumer-centric AI apps, including those for role play, erotica, and art, have soared in the years since video gaming stalled

AI apps didn't exist during gaming's highs

Many previously private pastimes (e.g. online porn, gambling) have become inherently more social – both in private friend groups, as well as across the social internet.

Video games are losing an attention war within the 'Major Market 8'

Novel interactive competitors are taking attention, time, and spend from video games

Novel interactive competitors are taking attention, time, and spend from video games

Over the last six years, video gaming has faced a surprising reality across eight "developed" countries representing ~60% of consumer spend: losing share in the Attention Wars

Interactivity is still ascendant... but that's video gaming's challenge. Interactive experiences continue to emerge and offer novel forms of skill mastery, progression loops, and social play

TikTok's growth hasn't come from direct competitors

The last six years saw massive improvements in the appeal, functionality, and cultural role of various novel apps/services.

Video gaming has not matched this experiential growth.

Short-form video, iGaming, sports betting, crypto, et al, have never been so easy to consume, so personalized, so social, or so optimized for engagement.

As many previously fringe pastimes shifted to the mainstream, they became fundamentally more compelling because they are more popular.

Video games not only compete with many new interactive substitutes, but video gamers face a barrage of new, interruptive, and irresistible notifications for these substitutes

Video gaming's post-pandemic problem isn't that players choose to watch TikTok instead of buy a AAA game, or subscribe to OnlyFans instead of buying a PlayStation; it's that on a Friday evening, players are placing a growing share of their time and spend elsewhere

In just the U.S., consumption of TikTok is up 39 million hours a day compared to the second half of 2020 and first half of 2021 (i.e., after COVID normalization)