Gaming spending includes Arcade + Console + PC + Mobile + VR + Web + Platform Services but excludes Hardware & Accessories and VAT

Slides: s093 Argument: KA007 Cluster: Market Segmentation Framework Hub-Score: 64

Framing-Operationen

Macht sichtbar

Software and content spending as the focus of gaming market analysis

Macht unsichtbar

Hardware sales, accessories, and tax implications in gaming market size

Naturalisiert

Platform services as part of core gaming spending rather than separate category

Abhaengigkeiten

Haengt ab von

c442 Gaming TAM includes Game Sales, DLC, Microtransactions, Subscriptions, and Services, and Ads but excludes Hardware & Accessories c_imp009 Quantifizierbare Metriken sind objektiver und wertvoller als qualitative Einschätzungen c_imp016 Die Abstraktiοn von Gaming zu reinen Zahlenwerten erfasst das Wesentliche der Phänomene

Ermoeglicht

c007 Global video game content sales had a strong 2025, growing 5.3% year-over-year and hitting a new all-time high of about $195.6B ($10B more than the prior high in 2021) c009 Consumer spending on video game content has grown exponentially from 1990 to 2025, reaching approximately $200B c080 Global consumer spend on video games grew $9.7B in 2025 to a new all-time high c084 Consumer spending on video game content peaked in 2021 at $111.7B across major markets and has declined to $105.1B in 2024 c172 Mobile gaming in France has been mostly sideways since 2020 but is finally starting to edge up c173 Mobile gaming content spend in France grew 13% from 2020 to 2024 c174 Germany is the 5th largest gaming market c176 Mobile gaming revenue is up only 0.9% c177 There has been minor participation rate growth in Germany c178 Italy is the #11 gaming market c181 Mobile gaming is up 90% from 2021 to 2024 c184 Japan's mobile gaming spend has been flat since 2021, representing a 27% decline in USD terms c186 Mobile gaming is down 3.8% (-$2.3B), though five of eight markets are at all-time highs c199 As in video gaming, microtransactions are beating gate fees c200 Crypto always siphoned hours and spend from video gaming c201 Crypto's first boom coincided with video gaming's COVID surge c202 The second crypto boom hit during video gaming's stagnation c203 Consumer-centric AI apps, including those for role play, erotica, and art, have soared in the years since video gaming stalled c204 AI apps didn't exist during gaming's highs c223 iGaming is already 2x the size of the mobile casino game category c224 iGaming represents 21% of all U.S. video game spend c227 iGaming represents roughly 45% of video game spend c229 iGaming, though the category might seem too distinct to compare to traditional video games, India is a clear case study on how it can squeeze the growth of the latter c232 If a player's $20 goes in and never returns, the outcome is functionally equivalent regardless of whether it's mobile gaming or iCasino c233 Traditional mobile casino genre (no cashout) long outpaced total mobile gaming growth c234 The casino genre is now shrinking as whale players depart for iCasinos c235 With iGaming, U.S. growth from 2021 to 2025 increases from -0.4% to +12.0% c236 Non-China international gaming growth goes from +10% to +30% with iGaming inclusion c239 Video gaming has not matched this experiential growth. c246 Video games not only compete with many new interactive substitutes, but video gamers face a barrage of new, interruptive, and irresistible notifications for these substitutes c247 Americans decreased their annual expenditure on video game content, software, and services from $52.49B to $52.30B since 2021, a $190MM decrease c250 These users massively over-index to video gaming, and especially high-revenue-generating platforms (console and PC) and genres (shooters, sports sims) c251 Video gaming's post-pandemic problem isn't that players choose to watch TikTok instead of buy a AAA game, or subscribe to OnlyFans instead of buying a PlayStation; it's that on a Friday evening, players are placing a growing share of their time and spend elsewhere c252 American men aged 18-34 are 1.4-2.0x as likely to play video games compared to the general U.S. adult population c254 Men 18-34 are 15% of the U.S. adult population but 21% of mobile gamers and 29% of PC/Console gamers c352 Not all mobile gamemakers generate a third of revenues from ads c353 Royal Match, the 2nd highest grossing new game since 2020, had $1.1B in net revenue in 2023 and spent $1.1B on UA c354 Dream Games achieved $0.13B operating profit despite spending $1.07B on user acquisition c355 Today, ads remain rare among PC/Console games and services (with the exception of on-device/in-store ad units) c361 PC/Console and Mobile game content spending trends are very similar in mature markets c364 Of the $136B in content sales outside of China and excluding 1st-party platform games and services, store fees consumed $33.2B of gross revenues that might otherwise go to publishers c365 iOS IAP generates the highest platform fees at $11.8B, followed by Android IAP at $9.0B, Console at $7.8B, and Steam at $4.7B c368 Many mobile publishers are already redirecting substantial and growing shares of their gross revenues to alternative (typically D2C) payment channels with far lower commissions c373 Across five mobile publishers with leading D2C adoption (and ~$4.4B in total player spend), gross sales are down 1% since Q1'23 but (more important) net sales are up 4% c385 At Epic Games Store on PC, IAP fees are only 12% (and often less), but a growing share of publishers use their own billing solutions. In 2025, 35% of 3rd-Party hours were direct c386 Third-party content playtime on Epic Games Store has grown consistently from 1.2 billion hours in 2019 to 2.8 billion hours in 2025 c389 In 2025, outsourcing held a record 35.5% share of total content investment spend, up from 30.6% in 2017 and roughly 31.5% during the COVID-19 c391 Outsourced share represents approximately 65% of net new content investment from 2022-2025 c392 Outsourced share was 33% from 2018-2022 versus ~65% from 2022-2025 c394 Upstream work (Art & Animation, Game Engineering, Coding, and Design) represents 74% of outsourcing work by 2025 c398 Gamemakers report substantial increases in the share of their engineering work that's outsourced, with most categories up 5 percentage points since 2023 c399 In creative disciplines, many outsource users report 60-95% of total work on animations, audio, environmental design, weapons, etc., is outsourced, up 4-5 points in two years c400 3D animations show the highest outsourcing rates among creative disciplines, reaching approximately 95% by 2025 c401 Many of the most creatively and commercially successful titles of the last few years have been substantial users of external development c435 Mobile gaming dominates the global TAM through both player spending (42.4%) and ads (26.6%), totaling approximately 69% of the market c443 Mobile gaming represents the largest share of gaming content revenue through player spending (42.4%) and advertising (26.6%) c366 Annual (non-China) platform fees rival many top markets combined as a revenue opportunity c367 Platform fees are likely 150% of (non-China) profits c369 Direct-to-consumer payment channels have far lower commissions than traditional app store payment channels c371 D2C stores are partly why topline mobile growth has slowed c372 Gamemakers discount gross prices to encourage D2C/webshop adoption that offer better net sales economics c374 Net sales growth (4%) is more important than gross sales decline (1%) c375 To maximize D2C adoption, publishers must do more than offer valuable discounts, fun perks, and simple user journeys. They must also support scores of payment solutions c376 Payment method preferences vary significantly between different regional markets

Verifikation

Nicht anwendbar

Definitional claim — THE spending definition (56 dependent claims). Critical finding: c272 and c442 define DIFFERENT market sizes. c272 implies ~$196B (without ads explicitly), c442 adds ads (~$230B+). 8 claims depend on BOTH definitions. Ball uses the narrower definition for the "stagnation" narrative, the broader one for "opportunity." The definition appears on slide 93, AFTER 50+ revenue claims that depend on it. See definitional-consistency.yaml.

Metadaten

Epistemischer Status: stated_as_fact
Evidenztyp: none
Evidenzqualitaet: not_applicable
Themen: market_definition, revenue, platforms
Grundlegend: Ja
Framing-Notiz: Scope limitation: TAM-Definitionen sind per Definition eingrenzend. Balls Definition ist eng, aber innerhalb der Finanzanalyse-Konvention.